CPG research
Unit economics read from the filings themselves, against what the inputs actually cost. Free, public, dated, and almost nobody reads it this way. Each study below registers its question before any data is pulled, publishes every row, and is re-run on a schedule.
Nobody stopped caring. They stopped buying.
The question: Did the Halloween occasion shrink, or did the basket shrink inside an intact occasion?
What it found: The occasion is at a six-year high and the basket is not. September search for the category ran 15.5% above its own 2019–2024 average while sales fell 6.7%, and decorations fell 58.6%. Across 409 comments about trick-or-treating, “skipping” appeared zero times.
Costs did not fall. They split.
The question: Did the gross-margin recovery of the last three years come from input costs falling, or from prices rising?
What it found: Neither, for most of the category. Food and household gross margin fell 0.92 points while a control outside it rose 1.99 — because cocoa rose 109% while soybean oil fell 27%.
Every study here is re-run, and the next reading will differ from the last.
Sound Decisions carries each re-run and each correction, with the registered question written before the data is pulled.
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